In order to win at sports betting in the long term, you need to win 56 percent of your wagers.
If you win 55 percent the vig is going to drain your bankroll. However, if you win 56 percent of your wagers you can generate wealth via sports betting over your longer run.
When, as a bettor, you identify and interpret reverse line movements properly, you can generally win between 57 and 63 percent of the time (based on decades of available data). That is why it’s critical to learn reverse line movement and understand the psychology for sports betting.
If you simply placed contrarian bets, and bet on the other side of the public, you would do well, but you probably will not win over 56 percent of the time. You might win around 52 or 53 percent of the time. However, you will still be losing in the course of your betting career because the vig will act as a slow drip to your cash reserves.
If you’re looking for the extra piece that gives you intelligence, look to understand how oddsmakers influence the public by shading the line and conducting reverse line movement. Deeper insight into the motives of a bookmaker will help you cross the 56 percent threshold.