How and Why to Bet Against the Public
If you want to win your sports bet, and get closer to that 56 percent winning average, you need to understand how to fade the public. Fading the public is essentially going against the grain of the larger population.
Identifying Public Betting Trends
There are certain teams that are overvalued in sports. The public loves these teams and consistently bet on these teams to win. In baseball these teams include the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox; in football the public loves the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants; and in basketball Americans go gaga for the Los Angeles Lakers New York Knicks.
You may notice a trend above. Teams in large media markets, such as New York, receive disproportionate amounts of attention and betting action. If you want to fade the public, you need to bet for the lesser known and bet on team.
Being aware of the psychology of sports betting will help you fade the public. Not only does the public bet on teams in large media markets, they also bet on teams with great stories: like the Chicago Cubs or the New Orlean Saints. The public loves a story where players or teams overcome adversity! In these cases, betting on the less storied team would be betting against the public.
And during the Olympics, the US public overwhelming bets on US athletes. If most of the US public is betting on Team USA against Team Russia in men’s hockey, you’re fading the public if you bet on Team Russia. It might feel like you are a traitor, but it’s the smarter bet.
Why is fading the public the smarter bet? Because bookmakers will shade the line and apply disincentives to public favorites. In an attempt to get more equal betting action, bookmakers will make bettors risk more to win less when there are overwhelming favorites at play.
There are times, however, when bookmakers won’t attempt to get equal action as we would expect. Instead, bookmakers make it more appealing to bet on a favorite: the set more favorable odds on the already known favorite. This is called reverse line movement because the line or odds move in an unexpected direction. If oddsmakers are trying to get more of the public to bet on the existing favorite, you should absolutely bet on the underdog! In these cases, oddsmakers almost certainly know something bettors do not yet know.
Bet the Under
Americans love high scoring games! We like to cheer for offensive action and we are bored by solid defensive plays and teams. Bookmakers know this. When they set totals for games, they always pad the total to be more than where they think the total will land to account for the public’s love of scoring.
If you walk away from a sports betting lesson knowing one thing, it’s this: bet the under.
If you consistently bet the under you would likely win 52 to 53 percent of your bets. It won’t get you past the magic 56 percent average, but it will get you close and it’s a good start.